How Cash Buyers Calculate Offers: Full Transparency

Ever wonder why cash offers seem low compared to market value? Or why two cash buyers give you different offers for the same property?

This guide pulls back the curtain on how cash buyers calculate their offers. Understanding their math helps you evaluate offers, negotiate effectively, and maximize what you net from the sale.

The Basic Formula

Most cash buyers use some variation of this formula:

Let's break down each component:

• ARV (After Repair Value): What the property will be worth after renovations
• Multiplier: Usually 65-85% depending on market and buyer type
• Repair Costs: Estimated cost to renovate
• Desired Profit: What the buyer needs to make for their time, risk, and capital

The 70% Rule

The most common approach is the "70% rule":

The 30% covers:

• Buyer's profit (15-20%)
• Holding costs (2-4%)
• Selling costs when they resell (6-8%)
• Risk buffer for unexpected issues (2-3%)

Understanding ARV (After Repair Value)

ARV is the foundation of every cash offer. It's what the property will sell for after being fully renovated.

How Buyers Determine ARV

1. Comparable Sales Analysis

They look at recently sold properties (last 3-6 months) that are:

• In the same neighborhood (within 0.5 miles)
• Similar size (within 200 square feet)
• Same bedroom/bathroom count
• Comparable condition (updated/renovated)

2. Adjustments for Differences

They adjust for variations:

• Extra bathroom: +$15,000-$25,000
• Extra bedroom: +$20,000-$30,000
• Garage: +$15,000-$25,000
• Pool: +$10,000-$30,000 (or negative in cold climates)
• Lot size differences: +/- $5,000-$20,000

3. Current Market Conditions

• Rising market: May add 2-5% buffer
• Declining market: May reduce ARV by 5-10%
• Flat market: Use comps as-is

ARV Example

Your property:

• 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,500 sq ft
• Needs full renovation

Recent comparable sales (renovated):

• 123 Main St: 3/2, 1,450 sq ft �� Sold $285,000
• 456 Oak Ave: 3/2, 1,550 sq ft �� Sold $295,000
• 789 Elm St: 3/2.5, 1,600 sq ft �� Sold $310,000

Calculation: Average of similar comps = ~$290,000

Adjustment for 0.5 bath less than one comp = -$5,000

ARV = $285,000

Estimating Repair Costs

Repair estimates significantly impact offers. Same property can get wildly different estimates based on buyer experience.

How Buyers Estimate Repairs

Experienced investors: Can walk through and mentally calculate within +/- 10%

New investors: Often bring contractors for estimates or over-estimate to be safe

iBuyers: Use algorithms and historical data (can be inaccurate)

Typical Repair Costs

Cosmetic Update ($20,000-$40,000):

• Paint throughout: $3,000-$5,000
• New flooring: $5,000-$10,000
• Kitchen update: $8,000-$15,000
• Bathroom updates: $4,000-$10,000

Moderate Renovation ($40,000-$80,000):

• All of above, plus:
• New kitchen: $15,000-$30,000
• New bathrooms: $10,000-$20,000
• HVAC replacement: $6,000-$10,000
• Roof repair/replacement: $8,000-$15,000

Heavy Renovation ($80,000-$150,000+):

• All of above, plus:
• Foundation repair: $10,000-$30,000
• Plumbing/electrical overhaul: $15,000-$25,000
• Structural repairs: $20,000-$50,000
• Addition or major reconfiguration: $30,000-$100,000+

Why Repair Estimates Vary

Two buyers might estimate very different repair costs because:

• Contractor relationships: Established investors get 20-30% better pricing than new buyers
• DIY capability: Some investors do work themselves, saving 40-60% on labor
• Renovation scope: Some do high-end finishes, others do builder-grade
• Experience: Pros know where costs hide; newbies over-estimate for safety
• Risk tolerance: Conservative buyers add 20% buffer; aggressive ones bid tight

Holding and Carrying Costs

While renovating and reselling, buyers pay ongoing costs:

Monthly Carrying Costs

• Property taxes: $200-$800/month
• Insurance: $100-$300/month
• Utilities: $150-$300/month
• HOA fees (if applicable): $50-$500/month
• Financing costs (if not all cash): $1,000-$3,000/month

Total: $1,500-$4,900/month

Timeline Assumptions

Buyers factor in how long they'll hold the property:

• Light cosmetic: 1-2 months renovation + 2-3 months to sell = 3-5 months
• Moderate renovation: 2-4 months + 2-3 months = 4-7 months
• Heavy renovation: 4-8 months + 2-4 months = 6-12 months

Example: 6 months × $2,500/month = $15,000 in carrying costs

Profit Margin and Risk Premium

Cash buyers are running a business. They need profit to justify the risk, time, and capital invested.

Typical Profit Expectations

• Wholesale flippers: $10,000-$20,000 (quick assignment, minimal work)
• Fix-and-flip investors: $30,000-$60,000 (or 15-20% of ARV)
• Buy-and-hold landlords: Based on rental yield (typically 6-10% annual return)
• iBuyers: 5-7% margin (lower due to volume and speed)

Risk Factors That Increase Profit Requirement

• High competition market: Longer time to sell = more risk
• Declining market: Could lose value during renovation
• Major unknowns: Foundation questions, possible code violations
• Difficult neighborhood: Harder to sell after renovation
• Over-improved area: ARV ceiling limits upside

Different Buyer Types, Different Formulas

1. Fix-and-Flip Investors (70% Rule)

Formula: (ARV × 70%) - Repairs

Most common type. Looking for 15-20% profit. Fast renovation and resale.

2. Wholesalers (75-80% Rule)

Formula: (ARV × 75-80%) - Repairs - $10K-$20K assignment fee

They don't buy themselves; they contract the property and sell the contract to an end buyer for a fee.

3. Buy-and-Hold Landlords (Rental Yield)

Formula: Based on rental income, not ARV

Looking for properties where monthly rent = 1-1.5% of purchase price

Example: If monthly rent is $1,500, they'll pay up to $100,000-$150,000

4. iBuyers (85-90% Rule)

Formula: (ARV × 85-90%) - Repairs - Service Fee (5-7%)

Higher percentage but charge service fees. Make money on volume and speed.

5. Owner-Occupant Cash Buyers (Market Value)

Formula: What they're willing to pay to live there

Rare in distressed properties but can pay more since no profit margin needed.

Real Examples with Numbers

Example 1: Cosmetic Fixer

Property Details:

• ARV: $280,000 (based on comps)
• Repair Estimate: $30,000 (paint, floors, kitchen, bath)
• Holding period: 4 months
• Carrying costs: $2,000/month × 4 = $8,000

Buyer Calculation:

• ARV × 70% = $280,000 × 0.70 = $196,000
• Minus repairs: $196,000 - $30,000 = $166,000
• Minus holding costs: $166,000 - $8,000 = $158,000
• Maximum Offer: $158,000

Buyer's Projected Profit:

• Sell for: $280,000
• Purchase: -$158,000
• Repairs: -$30,000
• Holding: -$8,000
• Selling costs (6%): -$16,800
• Net Profit: $67,200 (24% of ARV)

Example 2: Heavy Renovation

Property Details:

• ARV: $350,000
• Repair Estimate: $90,000 (major systems, foundation, full gut)
• Holding period: 9 months
• Carrying costs: $2,500/month × 9 = $22,500

Buyer Calculation (Conservative 65% due to risk):

• ARV × 65% = $350,000 × 0.65 = $227,500
• Minus repairs: $227,500 - $90,000 = $137,500
• Minus holding: $137,500 - $22,500 = $115,000
• Maximum Offer: $115,000

Notice the lower percentage (65% vs 70%) due to higher risk and longer timeline.

How to Maximize Your Cash Offer

1. Create Competition

Multiple buyers = higher offers. A marketplace with 500+ investors will yield 10-20% higher offers than a single buyer.

2. Provide Accurate Information

Help buyers calculate accurate ARV and repair costs:

• Square footage and room count
• Recent updates (roof, HVAC, etc.)
• Known issues (be transparent)
• Good photos showing condition

Surprises during inspection lead to reduced offers.

3. Minor Cleanup Can Help

You don't need renovations, but basic cleanup can improve offers by 3-5%:

• Remove junk and debris
• Mow lawn and trim bushes
• Clean windows
• Basic cleaning inside

This helps buyers see potential rather than being overwhelmed by mess.

4. Understand Your Numbers

Know your property's realistic ARV so you can identify lowball offers. Research recent sales in your area.

5. Be Flexible on Closing

Some buyers will pay more for specific timelines:

• Quick close (7 days): Buyers with idle cash may pay premium
• Delayed close (45-60 days): Gives buyer time to line up financing or contractors

6. Highlight Positives

Things that increase ARV or lower costs for buyers:

• Desirable neighborhood
• Good school district
• Large lot
• Unique features (views, corner lot, etc.)
• Recent updates even in an otherwise dated home

When Offers Are Too Low (or Too High)

Red Flags: Offer is Too Low

An offer might be unfairly low if:

• Uses outdated or incorrect comps for ARV
• Dramatically over-estimates repair costs
• Is 20%+ below other competing offers with no justification
• Buyer won't explain their calculations

What to do: Get multiple offers to validate market value. Ask buyer to explain their numbers.

Red Flags: Offer is Too High

Be cautious if an offer seems too good to be true:

• Significantly above competing offers
• Buyer asks for upfront fees
• Extensive contingencies allowing them to reduce price later
• No proof of funds

What to do: Request proof of funds. Have attorney review contract carefully. Beware of bait-and-switch tactics.

The Bottom Line

Cash offers follow logical formulas based on:

• What your property will be worth fixed up (ARV)
• Cost to get it there (repairs)
• Time and carrying costs
• Buyer's desired profit margin

Understanding this math helps you:

• Evaluate whether offers are fair
• Identify which factors you can influence
• Negotiate from a position of knowledge
• Recognize when to accept an offer vs. keep looking

Most importantly, competition between buyers is the single biggest factor in maximizing your offer. When multiple investors run their numbers and bid against each other, you get the best possible price.