Florida Housing Market 2026: What Sellers Need to Know

Florida's housing market has entered a correction. After years of pandemic-fueled growth that saw prices surge 50-60% across most metros, the Sunshine State is experiencing its most significant pullback since 2019. Inventory is piling up, prices are falling, and homes are sitting on the market for months instead of days.

For sellers, this is a fundamentally different landscape than even 18 months ago. Understanding the data behind these shifts is critical to making smart decisions. This guide breaks down the latest numbers, explains what's driving the correction, and outlines your options in a market that increasingly favors buyers.

Current Florida Market Statistics (Q1 2026)

Here's a snapshot of Florida's statewide real estate market as of early 2026:

Data sources: Florida Realtors, Zillow Home Value Index, Redfin, US Census Bureau, Insurance Information Institute

Price Trends by Property Type

Single-Family Homes: A Measured Decline

Florida single-family home prices are down approximately 3.6% year-over-year. While meaningful, this decline is more moderate than the headline statewide number suggests because condo depreciation is dragging the overall median down further.

The single-family trajectory over recent years tells the story of a boom-to-correction cycle:

• 2020: Median $280,000
• 2021: Median $348,000 (+24.3%)
• 2022: Median $405,000 (+16.4%)
• 2023: Median $415,000 (+2.5%)
• 2024: Median $420,000 (+1.2%)
• 2025-26: Median $405,000 (-3.6%)

Even with the pullback, single-family homes remain 45% above their pre-pandemic levels. Sellers who bought before 2021 still hold significant equity. Those who purchased near the 2022-2023 peak, however, may find themselves closer to break-even.

Condos: The Real Pain Point

The condo market is where Florida's correction is most severe. A 9.9% statewide decline tells only part of the story. In some coastal markets, condo values have dropped 15-20% from their peaks.

Several factors are compounding the condo downturn:

• SB 4-D reserve requirements: Following the 2021 Surfside collapse, Florida passed legislation requiring structural inspections and fully funded reserves for buildings 3+ stories and 30+ years old. Many associations have levied special assessments of $50,000-$200,000+ per unit.
• Insurance cost concentration: Condo master policies have seen some of the steepest premium increases, with costs passed directly to owners through HOA fees.
• Buyer hesitation: Uncertainty about future assessments is making buyers cautious, extending days on market for condos beyond 100 days in many buildings.
• Investor exits: Short-term rental investors who bought condos in 2021-2022 are selling as returns compress.

Regional Breakdown

Florida's correction is not uniform. Some regions are seeing sharp price drops while others remain relatively stable. Here's how the major metros are performing:

Gulf Coast: Ground Zero for the Correction

The Gulf Coast metros of Cape Coral-Fort Myers and North Port-Sarasota are experiencing the deepest declines in the state. Several converging factors explain why:

• Hurricane Ian aftermath: The lingering effects of Hurricane Ian (2022) continue to impact the Cape Coral/Fort Myers market. Thousands of damaged properties came back online, flooding inventory. Insurance costs in this region are among the highest in the state.
• Overbuilding: New construction exploded during the boom years, and those units are now hitting a saturated market. Builders are offering concessions, rate buydowns, and price cuts that directly compete with resale homes.
• Investor retreat: Both metros attracted heavy speculation from out-of-state investors. As appreciation stalled, many investors are liquidating, further increasing supply.
• Insurance non-renewals: Some properties in flood-prone areas are becoming functionally uninsurable at reasonable rates, removing them from the financed buyer pool entirely.

Tampa Bay: Cooling from the Top

Tampa Bay's 3.6% decline marks a significant shift for a metro that saw 30%+ appreciation in 2021. The market has crossed into buyer's market territory with 7.2 months of supply. Key dynamics include rising inventory from new construction (particularly in Wesley Chapel, Riverview, and Plant City), insurance costs that are 40-50% higher than the state average in some coastal zip codes, and a leveling off of the remote-worker migration that fueled the 2020-2022 boom.

Jacksonville: Holding Relatively Steady

Jacksonville's 2.8% decline is among the mildest in the state. The market benefits from more affordable price points, a diversified economy anchored by the Naval Station, financial services, and logistics, and less exposure to the condo crisis compared to coastal metros. With 5.8 months of supply, Jacksonville is approaching a balanced market rather than a full buyer's market.

Orlando: Tourism Economy Creates Complexity

Orlando's market is a tale of two segments. Primary residences are holding up better, with families attracted by relative affordability and the region's expanding tech sector. Vacation and short-term rental properties are under more pressure as Airbnb returns decline and inventory of investor-owned units grows. The I-4 corridor from Orlando to Tampa remains one of the most competitive new construction markets in the country.

South Florida: International Demand Provides a Floor

Miami-Fort Lauderdale is experiencing the smallest price decline among major Florida metros at 1.8%. International buyers, particularly from Latin America, continue to provide demand. The luxury segment ($1M+) remains active, driven by wealth migration from the Northeast. However, the condo market in South Florida is challenging, with older buildings facing the same reserve and insurance pressures as elsewhere in the state.

Inventory and Days on Market

The Inventory Surge

Florida's housing inventory has increased dramatically, representing the most significant supply shift since the Great Recession:

• 2021: 1.5 months supply (extreme seller's market)
• 2022: 2.3 months supply (seller's market)
• 2023: 3.8 months supply (transitioning)
• 2024: 5.5 months supply (balanced to buyer's market)
• 2026: 7+ months supply in many metros (buyer's market)

A balanced market is typically 4-6 months of supply. With many Florida metros now exceeding 7 months, the power dynamic has shifted decisively to buyers. This doesn't mean homes aren't selling, but it does mean sellers face more competition, more negotiations, and longer timelines.

What's Driving the Inventory Build?

• New construction: Florida builders permitted more new homes in 2024-2025 than any other state. Those units are now hitting the market, creating direct competition for resale homes.
• Investor liquidations: Out-of-state investors who bought during the frenzy are selling as cash flow turns negative due to insurance, HOA increases, and declining rents.
• Lock-in effect weakening: Some homeowners with low-rate mortgages are choosing to sell despite their favorable rates, either due to life changes or a desire to capture remaining equity before further declines.
• Condo listings surging: Special assessments and insurance costs are forcing some condo owners to sell, adding supply at every price point.

Days on Market: Patience Required

The statewide average of 80+ days on market is a dramatic increase from the 15-25 day averages seen during the peak. But that average masks significant variation:

• Well-priced single-family in desirable area: 40-60 days
• Average single-family listing: 70-90 days
• Overpriced or needs work: 100-150+ days
• Condos with assessment issues: 120-180+ days

Each additional month on market costs sellers in mortgage payments, insurance, utilities, maintenance, and the perception of a stale listing. When homes sit past 90 days, buyers assume something is wrong and offer even less.

Migration and Population

Still Growing, but Slowing

Florida's population growth story has been the primary narrative supporting housing demand for the past five years. That story is evolving, not ending, but the growth rate has decelerated meaningfully:

• 2021-2022: ~1.9% annual growth (highest in decades)
• 2023: ~1.6% annual growth
• 2024-2025: ~1.3% annual growth
• 2026: ~1.1% annual growth (still above national average of 0.5%)

Net domestic migration to Florida remains positive, meaning more Americans are moving to Florida than leaving. However, the pace has roughly halved from its pandemic peak. Several factors explain the slowdown:

• Affordability gap narrowing: As Florida home prices rose and insurance costs surged, the cost advantage over states like Georgia, Tennessee, and the Carolinas diminished.
• Remote work stabilizing: The initial wave of pandemic relocations has largely run its course. Remaining moves are more intentional and less speculative.
• Insurance sticker shock: New arrivals from the Midwest and Northeast are unprepared for $4,000-$8,000+ annual insurance premiums, which can eliminate the no-income-tax savings entirely.
• Climate awareness: Increasing concern about hurricane risk, flooding, and rising sea levels is influencing relocation decisions, particularly among younger buyers.

No State Income Tax: Still a Draw

Florida's lack of a state income tax remains a powerful attractor, particularly for high-income earners and retirees. For a household earning $200,000, moving from California (13.3% top rate) or New York (10.9%) to Florida represents $20,000-$26,000 in annual tax savings. This advantage hasn't changed and continues to drive luxury and upper-market demand.

Who's Still Moving to Florida?

• Retirees: The traditional and still-dominant demographic, drawn by climate, tax advantages, and lifestyle
• Finance professionals: Continued migration of hedge funds, private equity, and wealth management from New York and Connecticut to South Florida
• Tech workers: Tampa and Orlando attracting remote and relocated tech talent, though at a slower pace
• International buyers: Latin American wealth continues flowing into South Florida real estate

Insurance Impact on the Market

The Elephant in the Room

No analysis of Florida's housing market is complete without addressing insurance. At an average of $3,815 per year, Florida homeowners pay roughly three times the national average. In high-risk coastal and flood-prone areas, premiums regularly exceed $6,000-$10,000 annually.

Insurance costs directly impact the housing market through several mechanisms:

• Reduced purchasing power: A $5,000 annual insurance premium adds roughly $420/month to housing costs. For a buyer qualifying at maximum debt-to-income ratios, this can reduce purchasing power by $50,000-$70,000.
• Buyer pool shrinkage: Some properties in high-risk zones struggle to obtain insurance at any price, effectively removing them from the pool of homes that can be purchased with conventional financing.
• Motivation to sell: Current homeowners facing insurance premium increases of 30-50% are choosing to sell rather than absorb rising costs, adding to inventory.
• Appraisal complications: Rising insurance costs are being factored into appraisals and buyer negotiations, creating downward pressure on prices.

Reform Progress

Florida's 2022-2023 legislative reforms targeting insurance fraud and litigation abuse have begun showing results. Some carriers have re-entered the market, and the rate of premium increases has slowed. However, premiums remain significantly elevated compared to pre-2020 levels, and many homeowners have yet to see meaningful relief in their annual bills.

The Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, the state's insurer of last resort, still covers over 1.2 million policies, though that number is declining as private carriers return. The long-term trajectory is cautiously positive, but insurance will remain a significant factor in Florida housing economics for years to come.

Economic Drivers

Employment and Industry

Florida's economy remains fundamentally sound despite the housing correction. The state's GDP continues to grow, and unemployment remains below the national average. Key economic pillars include:

• Tourism: Florida welcomed 140+ million visitors in 2025, supporting hospitality, retail, and transportation jobs across the state. Orlando and South Florida lead in tourism employment.
• Healthcare: One of the state's largest and fastest-growing sectors. Major hospital systems in Jacksonville, Tampa, Orlando, and Miami provide stable, well-paying employment.
• Defense and aerospace: From the Naval Station in Jacksonville to Cape Canaveral's expanding space industry, defense and aerospace provide high-income jobs and recession-resistant demand.
• Financial services: South Florida's emergence as a financial hub, with firms relocating from New York, has created a pocket of high-income housing demand.
• Construction: Ironically, the construction boom that's adding inventory pressure is itself a major employer. A slowdown in new permits could eventually reduce both supply and construction employment.

New Construction: Friend and Foe

Florida permitted more new residential units than any other state in recent years. This construction boom is simultaneously a sign of economic strength and a source of downward price pressure for existing homes:

• Builder concessions: Major builders are offering rate buydowns, closing cost credits, and price reductions to move inventory, setting pricing benchmarks that resale homes must compete with.
• New vs. used: Buyers can often get a new-construction home with a builder warranty, modern insurance standards, and energy efficiency for the same price as a 20-year-old resale home. This is pulling demand away from existing inventory.
• Geographic concentration: New construction is heaviest along the I-4 corridor, in suburban Tampa, suburban Jacksonville, and the Cape Coral-Fort Myers area, creating especially acute competition in those markets.

2026 Forecast: What's Ahead for Florida

Price Outlook

• Short-term (6 months): Continued softening, -3% to -6% additional decline possible in overbuilt markets
• Medium-term (12 months): Stabilization likely as inventory gets absorbed and builder permits slow
• Long-term (3 years): Modest recovery as population growth continues and supply/demand rebalances

Factors That Could Stabilize Prices

• Mortgage rate decreases: Even a 50-basis-point drop would meaningfully expand the buyer pool
• Builder slowdown: Permit activity is already declining, which will reduce future supply
• Insurance reform progress: Continued improvement in insurance availability and pricing would boost demand
• Continued migration: Even at slower rates, net migration supports demand
• International capital: South Florida continues to attract global wealth

Factors That Could Push Prices Lower

• Another active hurricane season: A major hurricane strike would further pressure insurance costs and buyer sentiment
• Recession: A national economic downturn would reduce migration and employment
• Condo assessment cascade: As more buildings complete reserve studies, additional special assessments could trigger further condo selloffs
• Persistent high rates: If mortgage rates stay above 6.5%, the buyer pool remains constrained
• FEMA flood map updates: Expanded flood zones would increase insurance requirements and costs for additional properties

The Bottom Line on Timing

Florida's market is unlikely to see a dramatic crash akin to 2008-2009. The underlying economics are too strong: population is still growing, employment is healthy, and there isn't a subprime lending crisis fueling artificial demand. But the correction has room to run in oversupplied markets, particularly on the Gulf Coast and in the condo segment. Sellers waiting for a return to 2022 conditions will be waiting a long time.

What This Means for Sellers

The Reality Check

If you're considering selling a Florida home in 2026, the market requires honest assessment:

• Your Zestimate may be wrong: Online valuations haven't fully adjusted to declining markets. Price your home based on recent closed sales, not the number on Zillow.
• Buyer leverage is real: With 7+ months of inventory, buyers are negotiating aggressively on price, repairs, closing costs, and concessions.
• Time is money: Every month your home sits unsold costs you in mortgage, insurance ($318/month average), HOA fees, maintenance, and opportunity cost.
• Condo sellers face unique challenges: Reserve requirements, special assessments, and insurance costs can make traditional sales extremely difficult for some buildings.

Traditional Sale vs. Cash Sale

In a declining market, the traditional sale equation changes. Here's how the two approaches compare in today's Florida market:

When Cash Offers Make the Most Sense

Why Cash Sales Dominate Florida

It's worth noting that nearly 50% of all Florida real estate transactions are already cash sales. This is far above the national average of roughly 30%. Florida's cash-heavy market reflects several realities: a large retiree population buying with home equity and retirement savings, international buyers who often transact in cash, investor activity, and the insurance/financing challenges that make traditional mortgaged purchases more difficult.

For sellers, this means there's a deep and active pool of cash buyers in Florida. Getting multiple competing cash offers isn't just possible, it's the norm in many markets.

Data Sources: This analysis draws from Florida Realtors market reports, Zillow Home Value Index, Redfin market data, US Census Bureau population estimates, Insurance Information Institute, Florida Office of Insurance Regulation, CoreLogic, and National Association of Realtors. Data as of February 2026.