Jacksonville Housing Market 2026: Prices, Trends & Forecast

Jacksonville is Florida's largest city by area and one of its most diversified economies. Anchored by a major military presence, a growing healthcare sector, and the expanding JAXPORT logistics hub, the Jacksonville real estate market has historically offered a more stable and affordable alternative to the volatile boom-bust cycles seen in South Florida and the Gulf Coast.

But even Jacksonville is not immune to the forces reshaping Florida real estate in 2026. Insurance costs have tripled, inventory is climbing, and mortgage rates are keeping traditional buyers on the sidelines. At the same time, the National Association of Realtors has named Jacksonville a 2026 Hot-Spot — recognizing the metro's long-term fundamentals even as short-term conditions soften. This guide breaks down the latest data, explains what is happening across Jacksonville's diverse neighborhoods, and explores your options as a seller in a shifting market.

Q1 2026 Market Snapshot

Here is where the Jacksonville housing market stands as of early 2026:

Data sources: Northeast Florida Association of Realtors, Zillow Home Value Index, Redfin, US Census Bureau, Insurance Information Institute

Price Trends by Property Type and County

Single-Family Homes vs. Condos

Jacksonville's single-family market is holding up better than the condo segment, mirroring the statewide pattern but with less severity than South Florida or the Gulf Coast.

Single-family homes in Duval County have seen a modest 2.1% year-over-year decline, bringing the median to approximately $330,000. Demand remains steady for move-in ready homes in established neighborhoods like Mandarin, San Marco, and Riverside, where limited lot availability and mature tree canopies provide a competitive advantage over new construction.

The condo and townhome segment is softer, with prices down roughly 4.5% year-over-year. While Jacksonville does not face the same SB 4-D reserve crisis that is devastating older high-rise buildings in South Florida, condo buyers are still cautious about rising HOA fees, insurance assessments passed through associations, and the broader uncertainty surrounding Florida's condo market. Days on market for condos are running 15-20 days longer than single-family homes.

Duval County vs. Surrounding Counties

The greater Jacksonville metro spans multiple counties, each with distinct pricing dynamics:

• Duval County (Jacksonville proper): Median ~$322,000. The broadest range of price points in the metro, from $150K starter homes on the Northside to $700K+ on the Beaches. The 2.4% decline is moderate and reflects the county's diversity.
• St. Johns County: Median ~$577,000. The highest-priced county in the metro by a wide margin, driven by Nocatee, Ponte Vedra, and World Golf Village. Top-rated St. Johns County School District is the primary demand driver. Prices have been more resilient, declining only about 1.2% year-over-year, though new construction competition is intensifying.
• Clay County (Orange Park area): Median ~$310,000. More affordable alternative to both Duval and St. Johns. Popular with military families stationed at NAS Jacksonville. Prices down approximately 2.8% as inventory builds in newer subdivisions.
• Nassau County (Fernandina Beach/Yulee): Median ~$380,000. A mix of coastal premium (Amelia Island) and rapidly developing suburban corridors (Yulee). Price trends are split: waterfront and historic Fernandina Beach holding value, while inland new construction areas are seeing builder concessions.

Sub-Market Breakdown

Jacksonville's sprawling geography means pricing varies dramatically from one neighborhood to the next. Here is how the major sub-markets are performing:

NAR 2026 Hot-Spot Designation

The National Association of Realtors named Jacksonville one of its 2026 Hot-Spot markets — a designation that recognizes metros with strong long-term fundamentals even amid short-term market softening. The designation is based on a combination of factors:

• Relative affordability: Jacksonville's $322K median remains significantly below the Florida statewide median of $374K and well below Tampa ($380K), Orlando ($385K), and South Florida ($520K)
• Job growth trajectory: The metro's healthcare, logistics, military, and financial services sectors are expanding, providing a diversified employment base that insulates against single-sector downturns
• Population momentum: At 1.8% annual growth, Jacksonville is adding residents faster than both the state average (1.1%) and the national average (0.5%)
• Infrastructure investment: Major projects including the JAXPORT deepening, Downtown revitalization, and the $2.2 billion JEA utility infrastructure program signal long-term commitment to growth

For sellers, the Hot-Spot designation is a double-edged sword. It signals that Jacksonville's long-term trajectory remains positive, which should support property values over time. But it also means investor and buyer attention is focused on the metro, which creates competition in the cash buyer space and keeps institutional capital flowing in — potentially providing stronger cash offers than sellers might expect in a softening market.

The Insurance Crisis: Jacksonville's Biggest Headwind

226% Premium Increase

No factor is doing more to suppress Jacksonville's housing market than insurance costs. The average homeowners insurance premium in the Jacksonville metro has surged to approximately $4,200 per year — a 226% increase over the past five years. In coastal zip codes near the Beaches and along the Intracoastal Waterway, premiums regularly exceed $6,000-$8,000 annually.

To put this in perspective: a $4,200 annual insurance premium adds $350 per month to housing costs. For a buyer qualifying at maximum debt-to-income ratios, this effectively reduces purchasing power by $40,000-$55,000 compared to markets with more normal insurance costs.

Impact on the Buyer Pool

Insurance costs are directly shrinking the pool of qualified traditional buyers in Jacksonville:

• Monthly payment shock: A $322,000 home with 10% down at 6.3% interest costs approximately $1,800/month in principal and interest. Add $350/month for insurance, $300/month for property taxes, and the total payment exceeds $2,450 — pricing out a significant share of first-time and moderate-income buyers.
• Lender requirements: Mortgage lenders require insurance as a condition of financing. Properties that cannot obtain affordable coverage become difficult or impossible to sell through traditional channels.
• Flood zone complications: Many Jacksonville properties along the St. Johns River, its tributaries, and near the coast fall within FEMA flood zones requiring separate flood insurance — adding $1,000-$3,000+ annually on top of homeowners insurance.

Citizens Property Insurance

Florida's insurer of last resort, Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, remains a factor in the Jacksonville market. Citizens covers a significant number of Duval County policies where private carriers have either withdrawn or priced premiums beyond affordability. While recent legislative reforms have encouraged some private carriers to re-enter the Florida market, the relief has been slow to materialize in Jacksonville — particularly in flood-prone and coastal areas.

Economic Drivers Supporting the Jacksonville Market

Despite the insurance headwind and broader Florida correction, Jacksonville's economy remains fundamentally sound. Several major pillars support housing demand:

Financial Services

Jacksonville is home to FIS (Fidelity National Information Services) and Fidelity National Financial, two Fortune 500 companies that together employ thousands in the metro. The city's financial services sector extends well beyond these anchors, with major operations from Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, and numerous insurance and fintech companies. These high-income jobs provide a stable base of housing demand, particularly in Southside, San Marco, and St. Johns County.

Healthcare

Mayo Clinic's Jacksonville campus and Baptist Health — the metro's largest private employer — anchor a healthcare sector that continues to expand. UF Health Jacksonville, Memorial Hospital, and Nemours Children's Hospital add depth to medical employment. Healthcare jobs are recession-resistant, well-paying, and growing, making this sector one of Jacksonville's most reliable demand drivers for housing.

Military Presence

NAS Jacksonville and Naval Station Mayport together support an estimated 40,000+ military personnel and their families. The military's impact on Jacksonville's housing market is substantial: it creates consistent rental demand, supports home purchases through VA lending (which is less sensitive to insurance costs than conventional financing), and provides a steady economic floor. Clay County and the Westside of Jacksonville are particularly dependent on military-connected housing demand.

Logistics and Port Expansion

JAXPORT is in the midst of a major expansion, with channel deepening to accommodate larger container vessels and new terminal investments attracting logistics and distribution companies. Amazon, Wayfair, and several major retailers have built or expanded distribution centers in the Jacksonville metro. These facilities bring thousands of warehouse, logistics, and management jobs that support housing demand in the Northside, Westside, and Clay County submarkets.

St. Johns County Growth

Neighboring St. Johns County has committed over $820 million in infrastructure investment to support its rapid growth. The county's top-rated school district is the single largest demand driver, pulling families from Duval County and out-of-state relocators willing to pay the St. Johns premium. Master-planned communities like Nocatee, Shearwater, and Durbin Crossing continue to deliver new homes, though absorption rates have slowed as buyer pools shrink under higher rates and insurance costs.

10 Jacksonville Neighborhoods to Know

Jacksonville's massive geographic footprint means hyper-local knowledge matters more than in most metros. Here are 10 neighborhoods and their zip codes that define the market:

1. Riverside/Avondale (32205): Jacksonville's most walkable neighborhood, with historic bungalows, a thriving restaurant scene along King Street, and strong demand from young professionals. Prices range from $350K to $500K+ depending on proximity to the river and home condition.
2. San Marco (32207): Upscale enclave south of downtown with a European-style town square, boutique shopping, and some of Jacksonville's best dining. Limited inventory keeps prices above $400K and supports relatively quick sales for well-maintained homes.
3. Mandarin (32223, 32258): Family-oriented suburb along the St. Johns River in south Jacksonville. Established subdivisions with mature landscaping and solid school options. Median prices in the $320K-$380K range with steady demand from move-up buyers.
4. Jacksonville Beach (32250): The heart of the Beaches community with a mix of older beach cottages and newer construction. Premium pricing from $450K to $700K+ reflects the coastal lifestyle, though insurance costs are a significant factor for buyers.
5. Neptune/Atlantic Beach (32266): Quieter, more residential alternatives to Jacksonville Beach. Family-friendly with good schools and walkability to the ocean. Prices comparable to or slightly above Jax Beach in prime locations.
6. Springfield (32206): Historic district just north of downtown undergoing steady revitalization. Craftsman and Victorian homes in the $180K-$280K range attract investors and owner-occupants drawn to the architecture and proximity to downtown. Renovation opportunities abound.
7. Arlington (32211): One of Jacksonville's most affordable established neighborhoods, with homes ranging from $180K-$250K. Close to the Beaches and major employment centers, Arlington offers value for first-time buyers and investors focused on cash flow.
8. Southside/Town Center (32246): The commercial hub around St. Johns Town Center mall, with a mix of newer townhomes, condos, and single-family subdivisions. Proximity to employment at FIS, Baptist Health South, and Town Center retail supports demand in the $280K-$350K range.
9. Nocatee/Ponte Vedra (32081, 32082): Master-planned community in St. Johns County that has become one of the top-selling communities in the nation. New construction from $400K to $800K+ with resort-style amenities. Demand driven almost entirely by the St. Johns County school district.
10. Orange Park (32073): Clay County suburban hub offering more affordable alternatives to Duval and St. Johns. Popular with military families at NAS Jacksonville. Established and newer subdivisions in the $280K-$340K range.

2026 Forecast: What Is Ahead for Jacksonville

Sales Volume

Home sales in the Jacksonville metro are projected to decline approximately 7% in 2026 compared to 2025 levels. This is not a collapse in demand — it reflects the combined impact of elevated mortgage rates reducing the financed buyer pool, insurance costs deterring marginal buyers, and rising inventory giving buyers more leverage to wait and negotiate. Transaction volume should stabilize once rates begin to moderate or when sufficient price adjustment brings affordability back into range for more buyers.

Price Outlook

Prices in the Jacksonville metro are forecast to decline an additional 1.5-2% from current levels before stabilizing. Key factors shaping the price trajectory:

• Downside pressure: Rising inventory, extended days on market, insurance costs, and new construction competition from St. Johns County and Clay County builders offering incentives
• Support factors: Strong population growth (1.8%), diversified employment, military demand, and relative affordability compared to other Florida metros
• Timing: The market may bottom around mid-2026, assuming mortgage rates moderate toward the projected 6.3% range and builder permit activity slows

Mortgage Rate Impact

Mortgage rates in the 6.3% range — where most forecasters expect them to settle by mid-2026 — would provide modest relief to Jacksonville's buyer pool. A 30-basis-point rate decline from current levels would reduce the monthly payment on a $322,000 home by approximately $55/month, which may be enough to bring some sidelined buyers back into the market. However, rates would need to drop below 5.5% to meaningfully restore the buying power lost since 2022.

What This Means for Sellers

The Reality of Selling in Jacksonville Today

If you are considering selling a Jacksonville home in 2026, the math is different than it was two years ago:

• Extended timelines are the norm: With 62 days on market average and 113 days listing-to-close, you should plan for 4+ months from decision to cash in hand through a traditional sale
• Holding costs add up: Every month your home sits unsold costs you in mortgage payments, $350/month average insurance, property taxes, maintenance, and the opportunity cost of capital tied up in the property
• Buyer leverage is increasing: With 4.2 months of supply and rising, buyers are negotiating harder on price, repairs, closing costs, and concessions
• Online estimates may be high: Automated valuations have been slow to adjust to Jacksonville's softening market. Price based on closed comps from the last 60 days, not your Zestimate

Traditional Sale vs. Cash Sale

When Cash Offers Make the Most Sense

A traditional sale with competitive pricing still works in Jacksonville — especially for move-in ready homes in desirable neighborhoods like San Marco, the Beaches, or Mandarin. But cash offers become the smarter path in several common scenarios:

• You need to sell within 30 days: Job relocations, military PCS orders, or financial pressures do not wait for 113-day timelines
• Your property has insurance complications: Homes in flood zones or with coverage challenges are easier to sell to cash buyers who are not bound by lender requirements
• The property needs significant repairs: Investing $15,000-$30,000 in updates for a traditional sale is risky when the market is declining
• You inherited the property: Out-of-state heirs managing a Jacksonville estate benefit from the simplicity of a cash closing without the burden of repairs, showings, and months of management
• You are behind on payments: Speed is critical when foreclosure timelines are running. A cash sale can close before further credit damage occurs
• You are a tired landlord: Selling a rental with tenants in place is straightforward with a cash buyer who intends to continue renting the property

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the Jacksonville housing market going down in 2026?

Jacksonville home prices have declined modestly, with the median dropping approximately 2.4% year-over-year to around $322,000 in early 2026. However, this is one of the mildest corrections in Florida. Forecasts project an additional 1.5-2% decline before the market stabilizes around mid-2026. Jacksonville's diversified economy, military presence, and continued population growth of 1.8% are preventing the steeper drops seen in Gulf Coast metros like Cape Coral and Tampa.

What is the average home price in Jacksonville FL in 2026?

The median home price in Jacksonville (Duval County) is approximately $322,000 as of Q1 2026, down 2.4% from the prior year. Prices vary significantly by neighborhood: Arlington and Northside homes range from $180,000-$250,000, while the Beaches command $450,000-$700,000+. Neighboring St. Johns County has a much higher median of $577,000, reflecting its newer construction and top-rated school district.

Is Jacksonville a good place to buy a house in 2026?

Jacksonville was named a 2026 NAR Hot-Spot market by the National Association of Realtors, recognizing its combination of affordability, job growth, and population gains. The metro remains more affordable than most major Florida cities, with a median well below Tampa, Orlando, and South Florida. However, buyers should factor in insurance costs averaging $4,200 per year — a 226% increase over the past five years — which significantly impacts total housing costs and monthly payments.

How long does it take to sell a house in Jacksonville right now?

Homes in Jacksonville are averaging 62 days on market before going under contract, with the total listing-to-close timeline averaging 113 days. Well-priced homes in desirable areas like San Marco or the Beaches can sell faster, while overpriced properties or those needing repairs may sit 100+ days. Cash sales can close in as little as 7-14 days, bypassing the traditional timeline entirely.

Why is home insurance so expensive in Jacksonville?

Jacksonville homeowners insurance averages approximately $4,200 per year in 2026 — a 226% increase over the past five years. Florida's statewide insurance crisis, driven by hurricane risk, litigation abuse, and carrier insolvency, has hit Jacksonville hard despite the city being on the Atlantic coast rather than the more hurricane-prone Gulf. Coastal and flood-zone properties face even higher premiums. The high cost of insurance is shrinking the traditional buyer pool because lenders require coverage, which adds $350+ per month to housing costs.

What are the best neighborhoods to invest in Jacksonville?

Jacksonville's top investment neighborhoods in 2026 include Springfield (32206) for value-add opportunities in a revitalizing historic district, Riverside/Avondale (32205) for walkability and strong rental demand, Arlington (32211) for affordable entry points with renovation upside, and the Southside/Town Center area (32246) for proximity to employment centers and newer construction. St. Johns County (Nocatee, World Golf Village) continues to attract families seeking top-rated schools, while the Beaches (32250, 32266) offer premium rental returns from seasonal and short-term tenants.

Data Sources: This analysis draws from Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market reports, Zillow Home Value Index, Redfin market data, US Census Bureau population estimates, Insurance Information Institute, Florida Office of Insurance Regulation, National Association of Realtors, CoreLogic, and JAXPORT economic impact reports. Data as of February 2026.